Week of July 6 - July 10, 2026
FOMC minutes, Canada jobs, and PepsiCo/Delta earnings lead a quieter post-holiday week.
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Wall Street returns from the Independence Day long weekend to one of the lightest data calendars of the summer, with the Fed not yet in its July 18 blackout and Q2 earnings season just beginning to stir. The marquee event is Wednesday's FOMC minutes from Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish June 17 debut -- markets will parse the internal vote distribution and any explicit conditions that would reopen the door to cuts after the 'no 2026 moves' guidance was delivered. Monday front-loads ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings (both deferred from the July 3 holiday closure), while Wednesday's early-hours RBNZ decision is expected to confirm a hold at 2.25% and signal whether September hike odds are firming in New Zealand. China's June CPI and PPI on Thursday gauge whether energy-driven inflation is cooling, Canada's June employment report on Friday tests whether May's blowout +87.8K gain was a turning point or a one-month surge, and PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines fire Q2 earnings season's opening shots with investors watching tariff cost pass-through and demand resilience.
Eurostat's flash estimate of euro-area retail sales volume for May 2026, measuring the monthly change in consumer spending at brick-and-mortar and online retailers across the 20-member currency bloc.
Why It Matters
Eurozone retail sales have been persistently weak -- April fell 0.4% MoM as elevated ECB rates and above-target inflation squeezed household budgets. The May reading, the first data release of the week, sets the tone for European consumer demand and ECB policy expectations. A genuine recovery would ease stagflation fears; another decline would deepen the argument that the bloc is heading for a consumer-led contraction even as inflation runs hot.
If Higher Than Expected
Above +0.5% MoM: consumers adjusting to lower inflation and showing resilience. EUR firms modestly, relief bid in European equities, ECB cut expectations ease.
If Lower Than Expected
Below -0.5% MoM: spending deteriorating further under restrictive policy. EUR softens, ECB cut bets firm, European equities under pressure.
The Institute for Supply Management's monthly composite index of business conditions across the US services sector, surveying purchasing managers on activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries -- a reading above 50.0 signals expansion.
Why It Matters
Services account for roughly 80% of US GDP and employment, making the ISM the most comprehensive monthly read on the non-factory economy. Released one day late due to the July 3 holiday, it is the first major US data point after last Thursday's jobs report and before Wednesday's FOMC minutes. The prices-paid sub-index is the most market-sensitive component: it is a real-time read on services inflation, the stickiest part of the PCE basket the Fed is fighting to cool.
If Higher Than Expected
Above 53.0 with hot prices-paid: services demand holding and inflation sticky. Reinforces the Fed's no-cuts-in-2026 stance; USD firms, gold softens, short-end yields tick up.
If Lower Than Expected
Below 49.0: services sector contracting. Revives recession and rate-cut speculation; gold firms, USD softens, stocks whipsaw on growth-scare vs. cut-hope tension.
Next week
July 13 - July 17, 2026June US CPI and major bank Q2 earnings from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup lead. Full analysis lands with the weekly update.
This calendar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Event times, forecasts, and analysis are based on publicly available data and may change. Always verify with official sources before making trading decisions.