Week of July 27 - July 31, 2026

This is the densest week of the summer: a Fed decision, four Magnificent Seven earnings reports, the advance read on Q2 growth, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge all land inside four sessions. Wednesday's FOMC is the centrepiece. Markets price a fifth straight hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the distribution has shifted hawkish -- hike odds jumped from roughly 11% to 35% in the week to July 22 as oil-driven inflation expectations firmed, and nine officials in the June dot plot pencilled in at least one increase this year. Chair Kevin Warsh has told Congress the committee has 'no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation', and he is expected to offer minimal colour and no forward guidance, which puts an unusual amount of weight on the statement language itself. Wednesday's close then delivers Microsoft and Meta, and Thursday's close brings Apple and Amazon, completing the megacap AI-capex picture after Alphabet's 7% drop on heavy capex guidance and Tesla's 14% margin-driven slide last week. Thursday morning stacks Q2 advance GDP, June core PCE, personal income and spending, and jobless claims into a single 12:30 UTC release. Friday closes with the Bank of Japan, eurozone flash CPI and Q2 GDP, and the quarterly Employment Cost Index. The Bank of England on Thursday and China's official PMIs on Friday round out a genuinely global week.