Week of October 5 - October 9, 2026

Friday's payrolls printed a 29,000 gain against a 90,000 consensus, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wages slowed to +0.1%. Core PCE had already printed 3.0% year over year. That mix has pulled October 28 hike odds down after the September 15-16 FOMC lifted the funds range to 3.75-4.00%. This week's tape is quieter: Monday's ISM services (consensus near 55.0 after August's 55.4, with prices paid still 72.6) is the first activity check on that labour miss, Wednesday's FOMC minutes recap a meeting that happened before the soft PCE and payrolls, and Thursday-Friday open Q3 earnings with PepsiCo and Delta. China stays shut through Golden Week until Thursday. Oil remains the overlay: OPEC+ reviews November quotas on Sunday with Hormuz still disrupted, and Hyperliquid's HYPE unlock on Tuesday is the largest token release of the month, about $856 million. Friday's Canada jobs report is the first full month since US Section 338 tariffs, and Michigan sentiment is still near the lows around 48.