Week of August 3 - August 7, 2026

The first full trading week after the July 29 FOMC hold at 3.50-3.75% begins with Fed officials back on the speaking circuit -- the blackout lifted July 30, so any Warsh commentary on September 15-16 sets the agenda before a data point drops. ISM Manufacturing on Monday and ISM Services on Wednesday bookend the economic picture; services came in at a robust 54.0 in June for the 24th straight month of expansion, and any meaningful pullback would reopen the growth debate. Wednesday is the week's session of maximum density: ADP private payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and EIA crude oil inventories all print within two hours of each other, while Eli Lilly, Disney, Uber, and Shopify report pre-market. Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report is the centrepiece -- June's shocking +57K print (well below the +115K consensus) reset hike odds going into the FOMC, and the market needs to know whether July rebounds toward trend or confirms that the labour market is rolling over. On the earnings front, Palantir (AI government revenue), Caterpillar (industrial demand), AMD (AI silicon), and Disney (streaming under Iran-war consumer pressure) collectively span the AI infrastructure trade, the hard economy, and the discretionary consumer -- making this the last major data-and-earnings gauntlet before August trading thins.