Week of September 28 - October 2, 2026
RBA hike, August core PCE, and September payrolls set the October Fed path.
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The Fed's next decision is October 28, and Friday's FedWatch still sat near 64-66% for another 25bp after last week's hike to 3.75-4.00%. This week is the data that can move that pricing: Wednesday's August PCE (core seen at +0.3% on the month and 3.3% on the year), Thursday's ISM manufacturing (consensus 55.0 versus 54.6), and Friday's September payrolls (consensus about +100K versus August's +162K, unemployment 4.1%). Tuesday's RBA is the other central-bank decision: the cash rate is 4.35%, a 25bp hike to 4.60% is about 90% priced, and Governor Bullock's press conference is the Australian-dollar tell, with Wednesday's August CPI the test of a November follow-up. Europe's inflation week runs from Tuesday's Spanish flash to Friday's eurozone HICP flash, seen near 3.5% after August's 3.3%. Micron reports after Wednesday's close and Nike after Thursday's, with WTI at Friday's $92.41 settlement, the 10-year near 5.16-5.18%, and China shutting Thursday for National Day.
This calendar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Event times, forecasts, and analysis are based on publicly available data and may change. Always verify with official sources before making trading decisions.